Report on global energy
Executive summary
Global energy supply has been characterized by many challenges. Due to this, numerous debates have come up on how to mitigate these challenges. One of the major challenges is the depletion of non-renewable energy source yet the global population is increasing (Kutz, 2007 p.74). This report will identify long term energy trends and contribute to the broad debate on global energy issues. Considering the statistical review of world energy, there will be projections for these markets to 2030. This will take into account potential evolution, global economy, technology and policies. There will be the most informed reflection of the world’s possible path from the current vantage point. This report will draw expertise from within and without the company. Therefore, it is not based on how the public would want the market to evolve.
The focus of this report will be highlighting the increasing role of developing world energy usage. This will also include the rising share of non-fossil fuels in world energy supply (Goldthau & Witte, 2010). There will be emphasis on the significance of both enhancing energy efficiency and increasing energy supplies. This is fundamental because the global population is growing and so are its energy needs. Energy supplies needs not only to increase but also do so in secure and sustainable way (Crane, Kinderman & Malhotra, 2010 p.60). Apart from discussing projections and forward-looking statements, there will be an outline of possible uncertainties to the proposed projections. The knowledge of statistics is informative but it is essential to identify challenges. It enables the search for solutions in the choices made when producing and consuming energy (Hanrahan, 2008 p.117).
In-depth analysis
Demand and pricing
Over the years, the world population is increasing and as a result, more wealth is being created. However, this also leads to the increase of energy demand. This has been the global trend for the past two hundred and fifty year (Berinstein, 2010 p.207). According to economists, this trend is likely to continue for the next twenty years. The current world’s population is approximately seven billion and by 2030, it is expected to go beyond eight billion (Miller, 2011 p.97). The increase in population has resulted to significant growth in the world’s economy. In the past twenty years, the global economy has doubled in size. This is also what is expected in the next twenty years. One of the greatest contributing factors of this growth is energy. It has enabled the number of people living on less than a dollar to reduce by half since year 2000. The number was initially two billion and it reduced to one billion (Chasek & Downie, 2009 p.11).
(Population in billions)
The OECD has made a projection of oil consumption globally in 2030. Statistically, North America is expected to consume 2,868 million tones, Europe 2,013 million tones, Asia Pacific 7,850 million tones, Africa, Middle East and North America 3,986 million tons (OECD, 2008 P.23). This projection is based on today’s and anticipated trends in energy’s demand and supply. This conclusion is also influenced by the expected path of technological development and policy formulation. However, this findings may not take place if there will be unexpected developments. As economies continue to enhance, energy intensity will decrease. The energy required to generate each unit of income will all (Bahgat & Bahgat, 2011 p.49).
| Continent | Consumption (million tons) |
| Asia Pacific | 7,850 |
| Africa, Middle East & North America | 3,986 |
| South America | 2,868 |
| Europe | 2013 |
Another projection from OECD is on electricity and transport. Generating electricity is the largest area of growth. By the year 2030, the growth of electricity generation will comprise of 60% of the overall growth in energy consumption (National Petroleum Council, 2007 p.10). The next largest growth of consumption is energy use in the industry. Transport constitutes of 10%, which is the least growth since vehicles are becoming more efficient. By 2030, it is expected that efficiency in vehicle engines will increase by double (Cleetus, Cleimer & Friedman, 2007 p.210: Caputo 2009). Manufacturing vehicle companies should be encouraged to make more vehicles.
Product supply
Total production of energy will mostly be contributed by countries not belonging to OECD. They are estimated to comprise of about 80% of the growth experienced globally. Although these countries will lead in production of overall energy, they will not be such great consumers. OECD member countries such as USA will continue to be lead energy consumers. It is also expected that there will be an increase in reserves worldwide (OECD, 2008 P.40). For instance, North America has managed to extract oil, which was previously considered to be in unreachable areas.
USA and Brazil have discovered biofuels while Canada has emerged with heavy oil (Wilbanks, 2007 p.94). The current developments might result in North and South America becoming leaders instead of Middle East by the year 2030. These developments were totally unexpected a few years ago. In the year 2030, the Americans are expected to be producing 33.9 million barrels of liquid fuel. Middle East is expected to produce 33.6 million barrels by the same year. The total global production by 2030 is expected to be 8,217 million tones (Inderwildi & King, 2012 p.32).
The unconventional sources of oil will increase by 70% by 2030. This will be a positive impact to the demand of energy. The increase will contribute in meeting the global increase of energy production (Graus, Blomen & Worrell, n.d p.55). A country such as USA will be about 99% self-sufficient of energy. This will be because sources of oil will increase to a level of almost fully satisfying its population. Among the unconventional sources of oil are biofuels, tight oil and sand oil (Tomes, Lakshmanan & Songstad, 2011 p.111). Some countries such as China and India rely heavily on energy imports and this will have a major effect on trade balance.
These projections suggest that the energy market is dynamic and diverse. By the year 2030, there will be more business with job opportunities (Greene, 2003 p.107). These businesses will have the most advanced technology and great ability. This will be contributed significantly by energy production. The world might develop by doubling its economy by 2030. However, it is fundamental to consider a wider use of renewable and sustainable energy sources. This will not only be a future solution to increased consumption but also a current solution to this problem (Cleetus, Cleimer & Friedman, 2007 p.203).
Risks and uncertainties
Among the risks and uncertainties include future reserves might be small. Although there will be emerging oil reserves, they could contain small amounts of deposit. This will certainly change the expected production in every continent and worldwide. The expected supply in the world might not be met if this happens. Another risk is investing in energy sources such as nuclear (Miller, 2010 p.89). Some countries might result in using nuclear as weapon of mass destruction. Alternative use of renewable energy might not assist much in meeting the increasing demand of energy use in the world (Boyle 2004 p.12; Nersesian, 2007).
References
Bahgat, G., & Bahgat, G. 2011, Energy security: an interdisciplinary approach. Chichester, West Sussex, U.K., Wiley.
Berinstein, P. 2001, Alternative energy: facts, statistics, and issues. Westport, CT, Oryx Press.
Boyle, G. 2004. Renewable energy. Oxford, Oxford University Press in association with the Open University.
Caputo, R. 2009, Hitting the wall a vision of a secure energy future. San Rafael, Calif. (1537 Fourth Street, San Rafael, CA 94901 USA), Morgan & Claypool Publishers.
Chasek, P. S., & Downie, D. L. 2009, Global Environmental Politics. New York, Perseus Books Group
Cleetus, R., Clemmer, S., & Friedman, D. 2009, Climate 2030 a national blueprint for a clean energy economy. [Cambridge, MA], Union of Concerned Scientists.
Crane, H. D., Kinderman, E. M., & Malhotra, R. 2010, A cubic mile of oil: realities and options for averting the looming global energy crisis. Oxford, Oxford University Press.
Goldthau, A., & Witte, J. M. 2010, Global energy governance the new rules of the game. Berlin [Germany], Global Public Policy Institute.
Graus, W.H.J., Blomen, E., & Worrell, E. (n.d.). Global energy efficiency improvement in the log term: a demand- and supply-side perspective. Springer. Springer.
Greene, D. L. 2003, Running Out of and Into Oil Analyzing Global Oil Depletion and Transition Through 2050. Washington, D.C., United States. Dept. of Energy.
Hanrahan, C. 2008, Global resources. Detroit, Greenhaven Press.
Inderwildi, O., & King, S. D. 2012, Energy, Transport, & the Environment Addressing the Sustainable Mobility Paradigm. Dordrecht, Springer.
Kutz, M. 2007, Environmentally conscious alternative energy production. Hoboken, N.J., John Wiley.
Miller, D. A. 2010, Nuclear energy. Detroit, Greenhaven Press.
Miller, D. A. 2011, Energy production and alternative energy. Farmington Hills, Mich, Greenhaven Press.
National Petroleum Council. 2007, Hard truths facing the hard truths about energy : a comprehensive view to 2030 of global oil and natural gas. Washington, DC, National Petroleum Council
Nersesian, R. L. 2007, Energy for the 21st century: a comprehensive guide to conventional and alternative sources. Armonk, N.Y., M.E. Sharpe.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation And Development (2008). OECD environmental outlook to 2030. Paris, OECD.
Tomes, D. T., Lakshmanan, P., & Songstad, D. 2011, Biofuels global impact on renewable energy, production agriculture, and technological advancements. New York, Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.
Wilbanks, T. J. 2007, Effects of climate change on energy production and use in the United States. Washington, DC, U.S. Climate Change Science Program.
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