All land within the municipality of Springfield is zoned for either agriculture, residential, or commercial use. You have just purchased a parcel of agriculture land for $20,000 in the expectation that it will be rezoned next year. But the rezoning is controversial, and will be decided by the City Council rather than just the Zoning Commission.
According to your inside sources, there’s a 30% chance that the land will be rezoned for commercial use; in that event, you will be able to sell the land for $50,000. But the populists on the Council are pushing for more affordable housing; if they win the vote, which your sources think the likelihood is 50%, then the land will be rezoned for residential use, and you will only be able to sell the land for $30,000. Of course, the Greens may win, and the land won’t be rezoned at all. In that event, it will still be worth what you paid for it, but nothing more than that.
Mr. Hi Roller has just approached you. He is a land speculator like yourself, but does not have the inside sources that you do. He thinks that the land will be rezoned next year, and has offered $30,000 cash for it right now.
Which alternative should you choose? Explain your decision process in detail showing the equation and the process
Read about the Delphi Procedure
The subject is not about flipping real estate
Provide the mathematical solution to the answer that I provided below
My answer is listed below, but I need the mathematical equation that brings the answer to $14,000 using the Delphi Procedure.
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