Over the past 7 weeks you have been exposed to the different agencies that comprise the Intelligence Community, the way Congress conducts oversight and the ways in which the IC employs its different capabilities (which we refer to as the INTs).
1. What do you believe are the greatest challenges the U.S. Intelligence Community will face in the next decade?
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This reflection can cover a spectrum of possibilities from capabilities, and skill sets, to an aging work force and more demand for products. Be creative
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Added on 23.04.2016 14:52
Key Learning Concept 1
MASINT encompasses all technical collection outside of conventional imagery and
SIGINT.
At the strategic level, MASINT is viewed as a potential means of detecting the construction
of underground facilities, monitoring the activities at chemical and biological
warfare sites, and coping with increasingly sophisticated denial and deception
measures.
Key Learning Concept 2
Open source information provides the bulk of intelligence reporting and can be
used to inform and drive the collections process.
One of the key drawbacks to OSINT is having enough analysts to review and assess
the overwhelming amount of open source information.
Best, Richard A. Jr The National Intelligence Director and Intelligence Analysis
Congressional Research Service (2004, September)
DeYoung, K. (2006, August 9). A Fight Against Terrorism — and Disorganization,, Washington Post
OSINT 2010 Report: The Evolution of open Source Intelligence
The Intelligence Community in the 21st Century
To re-enforce the importance of OSINT please consider the following Case Study.
Appendix: Open Source Case Study: Indias 1998 Nuclear Tests page 93
Senator, we didnt have a clue. (Response by former Director of Central Intelligence Director George Tenet in a telephone conversation with Chairman Richard Shelby in the aftermath of Indias 1998 nuclear tests.)
On May 11, 1998, the Indian Government tested three nuclear devices, the first such tests in 20 years. The tests caught the U.S. Intelligence Committee by surprise. Then-Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet appointed former Admiral David Jeremiah to examine how and why we had missed the boat so badly.
In conducting his review, Jeremiah touched on a number of issues, including the availability at the time of open source information in the form of public statements made by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders prior to the election of party leader Atal Behari Vajpayee to be Indias prime minister.
Those public statements indicated that the BJP was interested in exercising the nuclear option.
In his final report, Jeremiah concluded:
that both the intelligence and the policy communities had an underlying mindset going into these tests that the BJP would behave as we behave. For instance, there is an assumption that the BJP platform would mirror Western political platforms. In other words, a politician is going to say something in his political platform leading up to the elections, but not necessarily follow through on the platform once he takes office and is exposed to the immensity of his problem. The BJP was dead serious…
Others were more explicit in their criticism. Former U.S. Senator Patrick Moynihan reportedly commented, It didnt take spies or spy-masters simply to read what Indian leaders said and to take it seriously.
These and other observations suggest that if analysts had paid greater attention and attached more significance to some of the BJPs public statements about nuclear testing, the Intelligence Community might have more accurately assessed BJP intentions.
A review of the public record prior to the Indian tests, however, presents a mixed picture in this regard and arguably underscores some of the difficulties analysts confront when attempting to analyze open source information.
During the election campaign in January 1998, the BJPs foreign policy spokesman stated that his party had every intention of exercising the nuclear option if elected. But in February of that year the BJP issued a campaign manifesto that suggested to some Indian analysts that the BJP might not be fully committed to conducting nuclear tests. New BJP Prime Minister Vajpayee, while reportedly stating that government would keep open the option of adding a nuclear capability to its arsenal, said there was no time frame for doing so. The governments defense minister further suggested there was no need to test nuclear weapons.
Amid other public signs that included no indication of imminent nuclear testing, a high-level U.S. delegation met with their Indian counterparts and concluded that no such tests
were imminent.
In the final analysis open source information that was available prior to Indias nuclear tests in 1998 presents a mixed if not misleading picture that presented a number of
analytic challenges (Best and Cumming 2007, 23-24).
References:
Best, Richard A. and Alfred Cumming. 2007. Open Source Intelligence (OSINT): Issues for Congress. CRS Report for Congress (December 5). Accessed September 9, 2014. http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:59Np2P1dVRcJ:fas.org/sgp/crs/intel/RL34270.pdf+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a
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